Software (IGV): The software benchmark declined 5.9% on above average volume last week and breached its 50-DMA. The IGV is
currently testing support at its 100-DMA ($100). The IGV’s quantitative metrics have deteriorated over the last few weeks: Up/Down
Volume ratio fell below 1 and Acc/Dist Rating remained negative. All 12 software-related groups declined with multiple groups falling
more than 6% including Ed/Media (DUOL), Spec Enterprise (TEAM), Security (PANW), and Database (ORCL). Despite the high
volume sell-off, the majority of constituents have just pulled back into their base. To remain constructive, it is important for ideas to
consolidate above long-term support. Key earnings this week include CRM, INTU, NTNX, and SNOW, We advise a cautious
approach and trimming exposure should ideas break below key support levels.
Author: Romeo Alvarez
Romeo Alvarez is a senior equity analyst at William O’Neil + Co., a registered investment advisor serving 400 top-performing institutional portfolio managers worldwide. The firm employs 150 associates in Los Angeles, New York, Boston, and London.
Based in the firm’s Los Angeles office, Mr. Alvarez is a senior equity analyst covering the Americas region and a member of the Global Focus List Committee, which approves all equity recommendations for developed, emerging, and frontier markets. Romeo also selects equity initiations to be covered in the Technology sector and regularly reports to clients on innovation and technology developments in Trend Watch.
Mr. Alvarez earned a B.S. in Business Economics from the University of California, Riverside, and an MBA with a focus in Finance from Loyola Marymount University, Los Angeles.
O’Neil Global Cryptocurrency Weekly
Commentary: We remain cautious on Bitcoin as GBTC trades below its 50-DMA. GBTC is in an Uptrend Under Pressure and has a high
distribution count of seven days. It is now trading 9% off highs, with support at the lows of its current base ($70.70).
O’Neil TMT Weekly
Software (IGV): The software benchmark gained ~2% last week and is forming the right side of a stage-two cup base. It is 4% below
the pivot. It has mixed quantitative metrics: Up/Down Volume ratio is at 0.9, while Acc/Dist Rating remains negative. Constituents that
are either setting up or in the actionable range include ADSK, CFLT, CVLT, DT, FRSH, GTLB, GWRE, INTA, PANW, RBRK, and
TYL. Nine of the 12 industry groups have shown improvement in Group Rank over the last four weeks, with Gaming (#59) and Tech
Services (#23) showing the sharpest improvement, followed by Security (#18) and Medical (#6). We recommend adding position to
ideas that are breaking out from their bases on good volume.
LATAM Weekly Summary
Key points from this week’s report:
Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.
- Brazil’s Bovespa index gained 2.9% last week and retook its 200-DMA. The index is in a Confirmed Uptrend. We recommend investors add risk in Brazilian equities.
- Mexico’s main benchmark rose 2.4% last week and is now only 7% off highs. The index remains in a Confirmed uptrend. We recommend investors add risk in Mexican equities.
- Coca-Cola Femsa (KFBL.MX) was removed, taking the total number of Focus List ideas in the LATAM region to two.
- Stocks of interest: Grupo Cementos (GCC.MX; GCC* MM), Qualitas (QCC.MX; Q* MM), Bb Seguridade (BBS.BR; BBSE3 BZ), B3 (BMF.BE; B3SA3 BZ), Totvs (TOT.BR; TOTS3:BZ). Additional ideas are highlighted on page 3.
O’Neil Global Cryptocurrency Weekly
Commentary: We remain cautious on Bitcoin as GBTC trades below its 50-DMA. GBTC is in an Uptrend Under Pressure and has a high distribution count of
six days. It is now trading 11% off highs, with next support at its current base low of $70.70, followed by its 100-DMA ($68.62). This week, Coinbase (COIN)
and Robinhood (HOOD) reported strong Q4 results. Growth was driven by crypto currency trading.
LATAM Weekly Summary
Key points from this week’s report:
Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.
- Brazil’s Bovespa index declined 1.2% last week after hitting resistance at its 20-DMA. The index is trading 9% off highs and has support at its 50-DMA (124K). The index is in a Confirmed Uptrend. We recommend investors add risk in Brazilian equities.
- Mexico’s main benchmark rose 3.1% last week, and reclaimed support at its 200-DMA on above-average volume. The index was shifted to a Confirmed uptrend from a Rally Attempt. We recommend investors add risk in Mexican equities.
- The total number of Focus List ideas in the LATAM region remains at three.
- Stocks of interest: Alfa (AFA.MX; ALFAA MM), Genomma Lab (GLI.MX; LABB MM), Porto Seguro (PSO.BR; PSSA3 BZ), Bb Seguridade (BBS.BR; BBSE3 BZ), Falabella Saci (FAL.CL; FALAB CI) and Nu Holdings (NU).
O’Neil TMT Weekly
Software (IGV): The software benchmark regained its 50-DMA ($103) and is attempting to form the right side of a stage-two cup base
and is 6% below the pivot. The IGV has mixed quantitative metrics: Up/Down Volume ratio is at 0.9, while Acc/Dist Rating remains
negative. The improvement in the IGV is being masked by a few weak large-cap constituents ( MSFT, ADBE, INTU) while breadth of
leadership is broadening, (Listen to IGV overview- click here). Constituents setting up or in the actionable range include CVLT, DT,
DUOL, FTNT, GTLB, GWRE, HUBS, INTA, PANW, RBRK, and TYL. Seven of 12 software related groups are ranked in the top 50
including four (Edu/Media (5), Spec Enterprise(8), Enterprise (11) and Medical (16)) in the top 20. We recommend adding position to
ideas that are breaking out from their bases on good volume.
O’Neil Global Cryptocurrency Weekly
Commentary: We turn cautious on Bitcoin as GBTC breached its 50-DMA for the first time since October 2024. In addition, bellweather
name Microstrategy (MSTR) is down 3% this week and is hitting resistance at the 50-DMA. We are shifting the market status to an Uptrend
Under Pressure due to the 50-DMA break and a high distribution count of six days. GBTC is now trading 11% off highs, with next support at
its current base low of $70.70, followed by its 100-DMA ($67.49).
LATAM Weekly Summary
Key points from this week’s report:
Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.
- Brazil’s Bovespa index gained 3.0% last week and reclaimed support along its 50-DMA. The index was shifted to a Confirmed Uptrend from a Rally Attempt. We recommend investors add positions in Brazilian equities.
- Mexico’s main index declined 0.3% last week after hitting resistance at the 200-DMA. The index remains in a Rally Attempt. We recommend investors wait for a follow-through day before adding risk in Mexican equities.
- Weg (WG3.BR) was removed from the Focus List, taking the total number of buy ideas in Latam to three.
- Stocks of interest: Nu Holdings (NU), Tres Tentos Agroindustrial (TTA.BR; TTEN3 BZ), Bb Seguridade (BBS.BR; BBSE3 BZ), Porto Seguro (PSO.BR; PSSO3 BZ) and Falabella Saci (FAL.CL; FALAB CI). Additional ideas are listed on page 3.
O’Neil TMT Weekly
Software (IGV): The software benchmark is forming the right side of a stage-two flat base and is 7% from its pivot. The IGV has
mixed quantitative metrics: Up/Down Volume ratio of 1, while Acc/Dist Rating remained negative. However, multiple constituents,
including CRWD, DT, FTNT, GTLB, GWRE, HUBS, SNOW, KVYO, RBRK, TOST, and TEAM, are either setting up or in the
actionable range. Eight of the 12 industry groups have shown improvement in Group Rank over the last four weeks, with Security
(#28) and Design (#92) showing the sharpest improvement. We recommend focusing on ideas that are breaking out from their bases
on good volume. ADYE.NL
