Author: Romeo Alvarez

Romeo Alvarez is a senior equity analyst at William O’Neil + Co., a registered investment advisor serving 400 top-performing institutional portfolio managers worldwide. The firm employs 150 associates in Los Angeles, New York, Boston, and London. Based in the firm’s Los Angeles office, Mr. Alvarez is a senior equity analyst covering the Americas region and a member of the Global Focus List Committee, which approves all equity recommendations for developed, emerging, and frontier markets. Romeo also selects equity initiations to be covered in the Technology sector and regularly reports to clients on innovation and technology developments in Trend Watch. Mr. Alvarez earned a B.S. in Business Economics from the University of California, Riverside, and an MBA with a focus in Finance from Loyola Marymount University, Los Angeles.

LATAM Weekly Summary

Posted on by Romeo Alvarez

Key points from this week’s report:

Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.

  • Brazil’s Bovespa was down 2.3% last week. The index was shifted to a Downtrend from a Rally Attempt as it broke below
    near-term support at 113,284. We recommend clients remain cautious and avoid adding risk in Brazilian equities.
  • Mexico’s main benchmark was down 2.2% last week. It was shifted to a Downtrend from a Rally Attempt as it broke below
    support at 48,485. We recommend clients remain cautious and avoid adding risk in Mexican equities.
  • We removed MercadoLibre (MELI) from the Focus List. The total number of Focus List stocks in the LATAM region is now
    down to five. Petro Rio (HRT.BR; PRIO3:BZ) is actionable.
  • Stocks of interest: Banco Do Brasil (IO3.BR; BBAS3:BZ), Ultrapar (U3G.BR; UGPA3:BZ), BRF Brasil Foods (DG3.BR;
    BRFS3:BZ), Caixa Seguridade (CS6.BR; CXSE3:BZ), Inter & Co. (IP9.BR; INBR32:BZ), Vibra Energia (PRB.BR; VBBR3:BZ)
    and Qualitas (QCC.MX; Q*:MM). Additional names are listed on page 3.

O’Neil TMT Weekly

Posted on by Romeo Alvarez

Software (IGV): Last week, the software benchmark pulled back ~3% on above average volume and closed below its 50-DMA ($348).
Immediate support is at $330, followed by the rising 200-DMA ($318). Quantitative metrics remain stable, with Up/Down Volume ratio
staying above 1 and the numerical A/D Rating still positive, albeit declining slightly week-over-week. RS line is also consolidating near
highs, implying overall outperformance compared with the broader indices. With last week’s decline, stocks at or near breakout levels
remain few and far between – ADBE, SNPS, CYBR, and ESTC are forming the right side of their respective bases. Large cap
software stocks – CDNS, MSFT, NOW, and IBM are reporting this week and will set the tone for the IGV’s performance in the coming
weeks. Though the IGV has outperformed on a relative basis, a breach below $330 could signal additional weakness. Reduce
exposure to stocks breaching logical levels of support and await positive price action in quality stocks pulling back to moving average
supports.

O’Neil TMT Weekly

Posted on by Romeo Alvarez

Software (IGV): The software benchmark remains on the right side of a base consolidation after closing relatively flat last week. It is currently at its 50-DMA support ($347). Quantitative metrics remain favorable with RS line trending higher, A/D Rating of B-, and six of the 11 software groups (Desktop, Database, Financial, Security, Edu/Media, and Enterprise) ranked in the top 50, including three in the top 20. Security remains a standout group, including PANW, which was recently added to the U.S. Focus List and remains actionable. Given general market conditions, only a handful of software ideas, including ADBE, CDNS, SNPS, VEEV, and VERX, are at/near their pivot. To remain constructive on the software idea, would like to see the IGV hold its 50-DMA and test resistance near $367.

LATAM Weekly Summary

Posted on by Romeo Alvarez

Key points from this week’s report:

Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.

 

  • Brazil’s Bovespa was up 1.4% last week. The market was moved to a Rally Attempt from a Downtrend. We recommend clients wait for a follow-through day and an upgrade in the market condition to a Confirmed Uptrend before adding risk in Brazilian equities.
  • Mexico’s main benchmark was down 0.6% last week. The market was moved to a Rally Attempt from a Downtrend. We recommend clients wait for a follow-through day and an upgrade in the market condition to a Confirmed Uptrend before adding risk in Mexican equities.
  • We removed Oncoclínicas (ODB.BR; ONCO3:BZ) from the Focus List. There are now six Focus List stocks in the LATAM region. Petro Rio (HRT.BR; PRIO3:BZ) is actionable.
  • Stocks of interest: Rumo (P3M.BR; RAIL3:BZ), Ultrapar (U3G.BR; UGPA3:BZ), BRF Brasil Foods (DG3.BR; BRFS3:BZ), Caixa Seguridade (CS6.BR; CXSE3:BZ), Aliansce Sonae (SSB.BR; ALSO3:BZ), Inter (IP9.BR; INBR32:BZ), Vibra Energia (PRB.BR; VBBR3:BZ), Fibra Uno (FUN.MX; FUNO11:MM), Qualitas (QCC.MX; Q*:MM) and Globant (GLOB).

LATAM Weekly Summary

Posted on by Romeo Alvarez

Key points from this week’s report:

Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.

 

  • Brazil’s Bovespa was down 2.1% last week. It was shifted back to a Downtrend from a Rally Attempt. We recommend clients avoid adding risk in Brazilian equities.
  • Mexico’s main benchmark was down 2.4% last week. It remains in a Downtrend. We recommend clients avoid adding risk in Mexican equities.
  • We removed Banco Pan (PMP.BR; BPAN4:BZ) from the Focus List. The total number of Focus List stocks in the LATAM region is now seven. Alsea (ALE.MX; ALSEA* MM) is setting up to break out of a cup-with-handle base.
  • Stocks of interest: Caixa Seguridade (CS6.BR; CXSE3:BZ), Vibra Energia (PRB.BR; VBBR3:BZ), Suzano (SUZ.BR; SUZB3:BZ), Inter (IP9.BR; INBR32:BZ), Petrobras (POB.BR; PETR4:BZ), Qualitas (QCC.MX; Q*:MM) and Grupo Cementos (GCC.MX; GCC*:MM).

O’Neil TMT Weekly

Posted on by Romeo Alvarez

Software (IGV): The software benchmark rose 2.2% on rising volume and is forming the right side of a flat base. The IGV is testing
resistance at its 50-DMA ($348) and is 6% away from its pivot ($371.56). Quantitative metrics improved w/w with its numerical A/D
Rating turning positive for the first time in four weeks and RS Rating strengthening to 91 from 88. On the downside, support is seen
at last week’s low of $333. Of the 197 O’Neil industry groups, six out of 11 software groups rank in the top 50. Within this, Computer
Sftwr-Financial, Computer Sftwr-Security, and Computer Sftwr-Edu/Media showed an improvement in Group Rank over the last four
weeks. Monitor high-quality names that are setting up/ breaking out, including Focus List ideas SNPS, CRWD, and VEEV, as well as
CDNS, MANH, PANW, and TEAM.

LATAM Weekly Summary

Posted on by Romeo Alvarez

Key points from this week’s report:

Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.

 

  • Brazil’s Bovespa was up 0.5% last week. It remains in a Rally Attempt. We recommend clients wait for a follow-through day before accumulating Brazilian equities.
  • Mexico’s main benchmark was down 1.6% last week. The index was shifted to a Downtrend as it declined 1.3% on Friday, and broke below the September 28 low. We recommend clients avoid adding risk in Mexican equities.
  • The total number of Focus List stocks in the LATAM region remains at eight. Alsea (ALE.MX; ALSEA* MM) is forming a cup-with-handle base.
  • Stocks of interest: Vibra Energia (PRB.BR; VBBR3:BZ), Inter (IP9.BR; INBR32:BZ), Suzano (SUZ.BR; SUZB3:BZ), Caixa Seguridade (CS6.BR; CXSE3:BZ), Mahle Metal (LV3.BR; LEVE3:BZ), Fibra Uno (FUN.MX; FUNO11:MM), Grupo Cementos (GCC.MX; GCC*:MM) and Globant (GLOB).

O’Neil TMT Weekly

Posted on by Romeo Alvarez

Software (IGV): Last week, the software benchmark closed marginally higher (+0.2%) and is testing resistance at its 100-DMA
($341). Next resistance is at its 50-DMA ($350). On the downside, look for support near last week’s lows of $333. Quantitative metrics
remain weak, with a negative numerical A/D Rating and a sequentially declining Up/Down Volume ratio. But RS line showed an uptick
for the first time since peaking in early September, indicating some outperformance compared with the broader indices. AI beneficiary
stocks were in focus – NET (+9%) announced a slew of new AI offerings in its product event and WDAY (-7% on weak medium-term
guide) announced new generative AI products for its HR-based products. Meanwhile, each of the IGV’s top four constituents (nearly
one-third weightage), ADBE (-0.6%), ORCL (-2.9%), MSFT (-0.4%), and CRM (-1.8%), underperformed the index and are trading at
or below their August lows. Overall, we would like the IGV to reclaim its 50-DMA on above average volume to turn constructive.

LATAM Weekly Summary

Posted on by Romeo Alvarez

Key points from this week’s report:

Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.

 

  • Brazil’s Bovespa was down 2.3% last week and broke below the 50-DMA. It remains in a Rally Attempt. We recommend clients wait for the market status to change to a Confirmed Uptrend to add risk in Brazilian equities.
  • Mexico’s main benchmark was up 0.6% last week but faced resistance at the 200-DMA. The index was shifted to a Rally Attempt. We recommend clients wait for the market status to change to a Confirmed Uptrend to add risk in Mexican equities.
  • The total number of Focus List stocks in the LATAM region remains at eight. Alsea (ALE.MX; ALSEA* MM) is attempting to break out of a flat base.
  • Stocks of interest: Vibra Energia (PRB.BR; VBBR3:BZ)), Tres Tentos Agroindustrial (TTA.BR; TTEN3:BZ), Caixa Seguridade (CS6.BR; CXSE3:BZ), Mahle Metal (LV3.BR; LEVE3:BZ), Qualitas (QCC.MX; Q*:MM) and Grupo Cementos (GCC.MX; GCC*:MM).

O’Neil TMT Weekly

Posted on by Romeo Alvarez

Software (IGV): The software benchmark declined 3.2% last week and has been under distribution over the last two weeks. The IGV
is currently sitting above its 100-DMA ($338), with next support near August lows ($330). Quantitative metrics are weak, with a
negative A/D Rating and a declining RS line. Of the 11 O’Neil software industry groups, only one group (Computer Software-Security)
showed an improvement in Group Rank over the preceding four weeks, with Computer Software-Desktop, Computer SoftwareDesign, and Computer Software-Gaming showing the steepest declines. Large cap names, including MSFT, ADBE, NOW, and CRM,
broke below their crucial 50-DMA support, underscoring the extent of the current weakness. Any break below their respective August
lows will confirm a bearish trend change and could lead to a larger basing process. We remain cautious on the IGV and its
constituents. Reduce exposure to stocks breaking long-term support levels on above average volume.