European Focus

On Thursday, the Stoxx 600 ended the day 9% below last Friday’s close. During the week, we downgraded France, Germany, the U.K., the Stoxx 600, Ireland, Finland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, Austria, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg to a Downtrend. Denmark was downgraded to an Uptrend Under Pressure from a Confirmed Uptrend. Of the 17 indices we cover, 16 are in a Downtrend, and one is in an Uptrend Under Pressure.

Global Focus Emerging

The CSI 300 fell 5.05% this week, registering its biggest weekly loss since last April. The number of distribution days increased to three and we shifted the market to an Uptrend Under Pressure from a Confirmed Uptrend as the CSI 300 broke below its 50- and 100-DMA Friday. Rising fears of the coronavirus spreading outside China triggered selloffs around the world. China, seemingly unaffected the first few days of the week, joined the U.S. market in a correction. Previously leading technology stocks suffered more losses: the ChiNext index plunged nearly 7% this week on higher volume. We advise a defensive approach amid rising coronavirus concerns worldwide and trimming positions in extended names. As companies release their preliminary earnings reports for FY19, investors should watch for disappointing results. The CSI 300 is now trading 0.7% below its 100-DMA. Next support lies at the 200-DMA or ~ 3,870 (-1.7%).

China A Shares

The CSI 300 fell 3.6% for the holiday-shortened week on lower volume and was moved to an Uptrend Under Pressure as the distribution day count rose to six from four. The Wuhan coronavirus, which has infected more than 600 people and killed 17 people as of January 23, hurt investors’ risk appetite substantially. Stocks related to retailing, leisure services, airlines, and films suffered from strong selling pressure. The CSI 300 breached previous support at ~4,100 and tested 50-DMA support. The next immediate support is at ~3,925. We are looking for a reliable solution to control the epidemic in order to increase our conviction. Investors are advised to stay cautious and focus on quality ideas with strong expectations approaching earnings season.

US Focus

The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq staged downside reversals Friday, closing at their respective 10-DMA. Distribution rose to four and three days, respectively. We are now looking for indices to find support at their respective 21-DMA (S&P 500: 3,271; Nasdaq: 9,179) should weakness persist early next week. We will likely shift the market status to Uptrend Under Pressure should this level break as the next level of support is the 50-DMA, which is 3-5% below current levels.

Global Focus Emerging

The CSI 300 fell 3.6% for the holiday-shortened week on lower volume and was moved to an Uptrend Under Pressure as the distribution day count rose to six from four. The Wuhan coronavirus, which has infected more than 600 people and killed 17 people as of January 23, hurt investors’ risk appetite substantially. Stocks related to retailing, leisure services, airlines, and films suffered from strong selling pressure. The CSI 300 breached previous support at ~4,100 and tested 50-DMA support. The next immediate support is at ~3,925. We are looking for a reliable solution to control the epidemic in order to increase our conviction. Investors are advised to stay cautious and focus on quality ideas with strong expectations approaching earnings season.