The CSI 300 rose 0.44% this week on higher volume and remains in a Confirmed Uptrend
with four distribution days. Although U.S.-Iran tensions disturbed the market, stronger-thanexpected
December price data eased worries about the economy to some degree. News that
China is sending a team to the U.S. early next week to sign a phase-one trade deal also boosted
sentiment. We remain positive on the general market as the CSI 300 is holding well above
support at ~4,100, and we see the next level of resistance at ~4,403. Investors are advised to stay
patient as significant distribution could occur with the expiration of lockup periods of a large
number of shares approaching the end of January. We recommend focusing on ideas emerging
from solid bases or rebounding from key support levels with heavy volume. Also, be mindful of
companies’ announcements going into the season of preliminary FY19 earnings results.
Author: Saminathan Jaganathan
US Focus
The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq staged downside
reversals Friday but continue to hold trend with a low number of distribution days. Near-term
support remains the rising 10- and 21-DMA. Distribution stands at three days on the S&P 500
and two on the Nasdaq, with one day expiring on each Tuesday.
European Focus
On Thursday, the Stoxx 600 ended the day 0.31% above last Friday’s
close and remained in a Confirmed Uptrend. During the week, we
upgraded Germany to a Confirmed Uptrend. Of the 17 indices we cover,
14 are in a Confirmed Uptrend, two are in an Uptrend Under Pressure,
and one in a Rally attempt.
Global Focus Developed
Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries Index was up 2.72% and hit an all-time
high this week. The index remains in a Confirmed Uptrend with four
distribution days.
Global Focus Emerging
The CSI 300 rose 0.44% this week on higher volume and remains in a Confirmed Uptrend with four distribution days. Although U.S.-Iran tensions disturbed the market, stronger-than-expected December price data eased worries about the economy to some degree. News that China is sending a team to the U.S. early next week to sign a phase-one trade deal also boosted sentiment. We remain positive on the general market as the CSI 300 is holding well above support at ~4,100, and we see the next level of resistance at ~4,403. Investors are advised to stay patient as significant distribution could occur with the expiration of lockup periods of a large number of shares approaching the end of January. We recommend focusing on ideas emerging from solid bases or rebounding from key support levels with heavy volume. Also, be mindful of companies’ announcements going into the season of preliminary FY19 earnings results.
Global Focus Frontier
National Bank of Kuwait is the leading banking group in Kuwait in terms of assets, customer deposits, and customer loans and advances. Its strong leadership position across its product offerings will pave the way for its future growth.
China A Shares
The CSI 300 dropped 0.7% for the week on lower volume. The market was downgraded to an Uptrend Under Pressure with four distribution days. It rallied for the first two sessions of the week, boosted by China’s cut of its reverse repo rate, and then reversed course for a three-day losing streak, erasing previous gains. About 65% of stocks were below their 200-DMA and previously leading sectors now lag the market. The market is still very weak and faces pressure from factors like the U.S.-China trade deal uncertainty and a possible economic downturn. Furthermore, fund managers tend to cash in profits as the end of the year approaches, which we believe caused leading sectors such as Consumer Staple and Health Care to plunge. In our view, Friday’s correction was more technical. Investors are advised to take a wait-and-see approach, staying cautious and patient. Don’t be too pessimistic and avoid chasing highs. Trim positions on extended ideas. We see the CSI 300’s next support at the 200-DMA (~3,780) following its break of 100-DMA support. Consistent resistance lies at the gap above (~3,950).
US Focus
The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq consolidated gains this week, trading relatively flat, but remaining above all major moving averages. The 21-DMA (S&P 500: 3,079; Nasdaq: 8,423) remains a primary level of near-term support. The distribution day count is low at two days each.
European Focus
On Thursday, the Stoxx 600 was down 0.4%, witnessing the fourth down day in a row this week. Compared with last Friday’s close, the index was down 0.94% until Thursday. Today, the index is upbeat and looks to pare some of the losses incurred in the week.
Global Focus Developed
Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries Index was down 1.19% this week and added one distribution day, taking its total to five. It remains in an Uptrend Under Pressure.
